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If you’ve been thinking about buying a home, mortgage rates are probably top of mind for you.
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JERRY TORRES’
Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator Team@JerryTorres.Pro #TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro
Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs |
Even as some companies transition back into the office, remote work remains a popular choice for many professionals. So, if you currently enjoy working from home or hope to be able to soon, you’re not alone. According to a recent survey, most working professionals want to work either fully remote or hybrid (see below):
This trend is good news if you’re looking to buy a home because a remote or hybrid work setup can help you overcome some of today’s affordability and housing inventory challenges.
Remote or hybrid work opens up a world of opportunities. That’s because it allows you to broaden your search for your next home since you’re no longer limited to living close to your workplace. With the freedom to work from anywhere, you can explore more affordable areas that may be located farther away from bustling city centers or your office. This flexibility can be a game changer while higher mortgage rates are making it difficult for some homebuyers to afford a home.
An article from the New York Times (NYT) highlights how remote work can greatly assist you in overcoming that challenge:
“. . . take advantage of the opportunity remote work has presented to move to more affordable communities (either farther out in the suburbs, or in another part of the country).”
And, since the supply of homes for sale is still so low, another key challenge for you today may be finding something with all of the features you want and need. Because remote work allows you to broaden your search radius to include additional areas, you may actually have less trouble finding a home with the features you want the most because you’ll have a bigger pool of options to pick from.
Working remotely gives you the flexibility to find an affordable home with the features you want. In other words, you have a better chance of getting what you need without blowing your budget.
Working remotely not only gives you more flexibility in your job but also presents a great chance to broaden your search for a home. Since you’re not limited to a specific location, you have the opportunity to explore more options. Connect with a local real estate agent to discuss how this can expand your choices and help you find the perfect home.
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JERRY TORRES’
Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator Team@JerryTorres.Pro #TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro
Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs |
If you’re thinking of buying a home, chances are you’re paying attention to just about everything you hear about the housing market. And you’re getting your information from a variety of channels: the news, social media, your real estate agent, conversations with friends and loved ones, overhearing someone chatting at the local supermarket, the list goes on and on. Most likely, home prices and mortgage rates are coming up a lot.
To help cut through the noise and give you the information you need most, take a look at what the data says. Here are the top two questions you need to ask yourself about home prices and mortgage rates as you make your decision:
One reliable place you can turn to for that information is the Home Price Expectation Survey from Pulsenomics – a survey of a national panel of over one hundred economists, real estate experts, and investment and market strategists.
According to the latest release, the experts surveyed are projecting slight depreciation this year (see the red in the graph below). But here’s the context you need most. The worst home price declines are already behind us, and prices are actually appreciating again in many markets. Not to mention, the small 0.37% depreciation HPES is showing for 2023 is far from the crash some people originally said would happen.
Now, let’s look to the future. The green in the graph below shows prices have turned a corner and are expected to appreciate in 2024 and beyond. After this year, the HPES is forecasting home price appreciation returning to more normal levels for the next several years.
So, why does this matter to you? It means your home will likely grow in value and you should gain home equity in the years ahead, but only if you buy now. If you wait, based on these forecasts, the home will only cost you more later on.
Over the past year, mortgage rates have risen in response to economic uncertainty, inflation, and more. We know based on the latest reports that inflation, while still high, has moderated from its peak. This is an encouraging sign for the market and for mortgage rates. Here’s why.
When inflation cools, mortgage rates generally fall in response. This may be why some experts are saying mortgage rates will pull back slightly over the next few quarters and settle somewhere around roughly 5.5 and 6% on average.
But, not even the experts can say with absolute certainty where mortgage rates will be next year, or even next month. That’s because there are so many factors that can impact what happens. So, to give you a lens into the various possible outcomes, here’s what you should consider:
If you’re thinking about buying a home, you need to know what’s expected with home prices and mortgage rates. While no one can say for certain where they’ll go, expert projections can give you powerful information to keep you informed. Lean on a trusted real estate professional who can add in an expert opinion on your local market.
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JERRY TORRES’
Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator Team@JerryTorres.Pro #TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro
Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs |
If you’re thinking about selling your house right now, chances are it’s because something in your life has changed. And, while things like mortgage rates are a key part of your decision on what you’ll buy next, it’s important to not lose sight of the reason you want to make a change in the first place.
It’s true mortgage rates have climbed from the record lows we saw in recent years, and that has an impact on affordability. With rates where they are right now, some homeowners are deciding they’ll wait to sell because they don’t want to move and have a higher mortgage rate on their next home. As Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, explains:
“. . . homeowners who locked in a 30-year fixed rate in the 2-3% range don’t necessarily want to give that up in exchange for a rate in the 6-7% range.”
But your lifestyle and your changing needs should matter more. Here are a few of the most common reasons people choose to sell today. Any one of these may be more important than keeping your current mortgage rate.
As Ali Wolf, Chief Economist at Zonda, says in a recent tweet:
“First-time and move-up buyers are both active . . . the latter driven by life changes. Divorce, marriage, new higher paid job, and existing home unsuitable all referenced.”
Some of the things that can motivate a move to a new area include changing jobs, a desire to be closer to friends and loved ones, wanting to live in a dream location, or just looking for a change in scenery.
For example, if you live in suburbia and just landed your dream job in NYC, you may be thinking about selling your current home and moving to the city for work.
Many homeowners decide to sell to move into a larger home. This is especially common when there’s a need for more room to entertain, a home office or gym, or additional bedrooms to accommodate a growing number of loved ones.
For example, if you’re living in a condo and decide it’s time to seek out a home with more space, or if your household is growing, it may be time to find a home that better fits those needs.
With inflation driving up everyday expenses, homeowners may also decide to sell to reduce maintenance and costs. Or, they may sell because someone’s moved out of the home recently and there’s now more space than needed. It could also be that they’ve recently retired or are ready for a change.
For example, you’ve just kicked off your retirement and you want to move to somewhere you can enjoy the warm weather and have less house to maintain. Your new lifestyle may be better suited for a different home.
Divorce, separation, or marriage are other common reasons individuals sell to buy different homes.
For example, if you’ve recently separated, it may be difficult to still live under one roof. Selling and downsizing may be better options.
If a homeowner faces mobility challenges or health issues that require specific living arrangements or modifications, they might sell their current home to find one that works better for them.
For example, you may be looking to sell your home and use the proceeds to help pay for a unit in an assisted-living facility.
With higher mortgage rates, there are some affordability challenges right now – but your needs and your lifestyle matter too. As a recent article from Bankrate says:
“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal decision. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based, before putting your home on the market. . . . Your future plans and goals should be a significant part of the equation . . .”
If you’re ready to sell your house so you can make a move, connect with a real estate professional. That way you have an expert on your side to help you navigate the process and find a home that can deliver on what you’re looking for.
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JERRY TORRES’
Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator Team@JerryTorres.Pro #TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro
Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs |
Today’s mortgage rates are top-of-mind for many homebuyers right now. As a result, if you’re thinking about buying for the first time or selling your current house to move into a home that better fits your needs, you may be asking yourself these two questions:
Here’s context you need to help answer those questions.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is largely influenced by the supply and demand for mortgage-backed securities (MBS). According to Investopedia:
“Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are investment products similar to bonds. Each MBS consists of a bundle of home loans and other real estate debt bought from the banks that issued them . . . The investor who buys a mortgage-backed security is essentially lending money to home buyers.”
Demand for MBS helps determine the spread between the 10-Year Treasury Yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. Historically, the average spread between the two is 1.72 (see chart below):
Last Friday morning, the mortgage rate was 6.85%. That means the spread was 3.2%, which is almost 1.5% over the norm. If the spread was at its historical average, mortgage rates would be 5.37% (3.65% 10-Year Treasury Yield + 1.72 spread).
This large spread is very unusual. As George Ratiu, Chief Economist at Keeping Current Matters (KCM), explains:
“The only times the spread approached or exceeded 300 basis points were during periods of high inflation or economic volatility, like those seen in the early 1980s or the Great Financial Crisis of 2008-09.”
The graph below uses historical data to help illustrate this point by showing the few times the spread has increased to 300 basis points or more:
The graph shows how the spread has come down after each peak. The good news is, that means there’s room for mortgage rates to improve today.
So, what’s causing the larger spread and making mortgage rates so high today?
The demand for MBS is heavily influenced by the risks associated with investing in them. Today, that risk is impacted by broader market conditions like inflation and fear of a potential recession, the Fed’s interest rate hikes to try to bring down inflation, headlines that create unnecessarily negative narratives about home prices, and more.
Simply put: when there’s less risk, demand for MBS is high, so mortgage rates will be lower. On the other hand, if there’s more risk with MBS, demand for MBS will be low, and we’ll see higher mortgage rates as a result. Currently, demand for MBS is low, so mortgage rates are high.
Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, answers that question in a recent blog:
“It’s reasonable to assume that the spread and, therefore, mortgage rates will retreat in the second half of the year if the Fed takes its foot off the monetary tightening pedal and provides investors with more certainty. However, it’s unlikely that the spread will return to its historical average of 170 basis points, as some risks are here to stay.”
The spread will shrink when the fear investors feel is eased. That’ll mean we should see mortgage rates moderate as the year goes on. However, when it comes to forecasting mortgage rates, no one can know for sure exactly what will happen.
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JERRY TORRES’
Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator Team@JerryTorres.Pro #TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro
Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs |
El año pasado, la Reserva Federal tomó medidas para tratar de reducir la inflación. En respuesta a esos esfuerzos, las tasas hipotecarias subieron rápidamente desde los mínimos históricos que vimos en el 2021, alcanzando un máximo de poco más del 7 % el octubre pasado. Como resultado los compradores optimistas experimentaron un golpe en su poder adquisitivo, y algunos decidieron hacer una pausa en sus planes.
![Pronóstico de la vivienda para 2021 [infografía] | Simplifying The Market](https://s3.amazonaws.com/jerrytorres.pro/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/19060233/20201218-MEM-SP.png)
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JERRY TORRES’ Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
Team@JerryTorres.Pro #TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro
Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs |
Este año será recordado por muchas razones, y el optimismo es una cosa que ha sido escasa desde la primavera. Estamos experimentando una pandemia global, un malestar social, una recesión económica y desastres naturales, por nombrar solo algunos. Los desafíos provocados por la crisis de la salud también han obligado a muchos propietarios a reevaluar su espacio y lo que necesitan en una casa al entrar en 2021. Por lo tanto, los expertos están pronosticando que el próximo año es uno en el que podemos ser optimistas sobre el sector de la vivienda por tres razones claves.
Tim Duy de la Universidad de Oregón lo pone de esta manera:
“No hay nada fundamentalmente ‘roto’ en la economía que necesite sanar… no había una burbuja financiera obvia que impulsara una actividad excesiva en cualquier sector económico cuando la pandemia golpeó… Con los casos de Covid-19 surgiendo de nuevo, es comprensiblemente difícil mirar con optimismo al otro lado de este invierno… No deje que los desafíos a corto plazo le distraigan de la etapa económica que se está preparando para los próximos cuatro años”.
En las últimas proyecciones de Freddie Mac, se espera que la tasa de interés para una hipoteca con tasa fija a 30 años se mantenga en o cerca del 3 % el próximo año. Estas tasas bajas seguirán haciendo que las casas sean más asequibles, impulsando la demanda de la vivienda en 2021.
Mientras que la economía mejora y las tasas de interés siguen siendo bajas, también se espera que las viviendas continúen apreciando a medida que más personas compran el próximo año. Danielle Hale, Economista Principal de realtor.com dice:
“Esperamos que las ventas de las viviendas en 2021 lleguen un 7.0 % por encima de los niveles de 2020, siguiendo una tendencia estacional mas normal y creando un impulso a través de la primavera y sosteniendo el ritmo en la segunda mitad del año”.
Los expertos pronostican que los compradores y vendedores van a estar activos en 2021. Si ha pensado comprar o vender su casa este año, pero está esperando, ahora puede ser el momento para aprovechar el mercado. Vamos a comunicarnos para que tome el primer paso hacia su casa nueva.
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JERRY TORRES’ Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
Team@JerryTorres.Pro #TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro
Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs |
El viernes negro y el ciber lunes han quedado atrás, sin embargo, encontrar el regalo navideño perfecto para los amigos y familiares es sin duda lo que está en la mente de muchos en este momento. Este año, hay otro tipo de comprador que está muy activo esta temporada festiva: el comprador de vivienda.
Cada mes, ShowingTime publica su ‘Showing Index’, que realiza un seguimiento del número promedio de citas recibidas en las casas activas para la venta de los Estados Unidos. El último índice indica que:
“El índice reportó un salto al 60.9 por ciento en el tráfico nacional de exhibiciones año tras año en octubre, el sexto mes consecutivo viendo un aumento con respecto al año anterior”.
Este es el desglose de la última actividad por región del país en comparación con esta época del año pasado:
La crisis de la salud definitivamente puso en pausa los planes de compra de la vivienda para muchos a principios de este año. Sin embargo, los compradores están en el mercado y se están mudando en mayor cantidad que en las temporadas típicas de compra de las viviendas de la primavera y el verano.
Una de las razones principales por las que el tráfico de los compradores continúo aumentando en la segunda mitad de 2020 es la drástica caída de las tasas hipotecarias. Según Freddie Mac, la tasa hipotecaria promedio el diciembre pasado fue del 3.72 %. Hoy, la tasa es un punto porcentual completo más baja.
Hay compradores por primera vez y compradores buscando una casa mas grande que buscan activamente la casa de sus sueños este invierno. Si está pensando en vender su casa en 2021, no necesita esperar hasta la primavera para hacerlo. Es muy probable que su comprador potencial este buscando una casa en su vecindario en este momento.
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JERRY TORRES’ Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
Team@JerryTorres.Pro #TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro
Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs |
El inventario de las viviendas está en un mínimo histórico. Realtor.com acaba de informar que hay un 39 % menos de casas en venta hoy que el año pasado. Al mismo tiempo, la demanda de los compradores sigue siendo fuerte. En un boletín reciente, Ivy Zelman, Analista de Investigación, explicó:
“Aunque el viento en contra, de severas limitaciones de la oferta, en la mayoría de los mercados ha contribuido a una ligera moderación en el aumento de los contratos pendientes ajustado estacionalmente y año tras año durante dos meses consecutivos (aunque sigue aumentado con fuerza), la fortaleza subyacente de la demanda de los compradores, particularmente para esta época del año, sigue siendo evidente”.
Cada vez que hay una escasez en la oferta de un artículo que está en alta demanda, el precio de ese artículo aumenta. Eso es exactamente lo que está pasando en el mercado de bienes raíces en este momento. Como resultado, el valor de las casas está aumentando.
Esta es una gran noticia si está planeando vender su casa. Por otro lado, como comprador por primera vez o repetitivo, esto puede parecer una noticia preocupante. Sin embargo, los compradores deben darse cuenta de que el precio de una casa no es tan importante como el costo mensual. Aquí esta como se desglosa.
Hay varios factores que influyen en el costo de su casa. Dos de los principales son:
La Asociación Nacional de Realtors (NAR por sus siglas en inglés) produce un índice de asequibilidad de la vivienda que tiene en cuenta estos factores y determina una puntuación global de asequibilidad para la vivienda. Según NAR, el índice:
“… mide si una familia típica obtiene o no los ingresos suficientes para calificar por un préstamo hipotecario para una vivienda típica a nivel nacional y regional sobre la base de los datos del precio e ingresos mas recientes”.
Su metodología establece que:
“Para interpretar los índices, un valor de 100 significa que una familia con ingresos medios tiene exactamente los ingresos necesarios para calificar para una hipoteca de una vivienda de precio medio. Un índice superior a 100 significa que la familia obteniendo los ingresos medios tienen más que suficiente para calificar para un préstamo hipotecario para una casa con precio medio, asumiendo un pago inicial del 20 por ciento”.
Por lo tanto, cuanto mayor sea el índice, mas asequible es para comprar una casa. Aquí hay una gráfica del índice que se remonta a 1990:
La barra azul representa la asequibilidad actual. Podemos ver que las casas son mas asequibles ahora que de:
Comprar una casa hoy es un poco menos asequible que el año pasado, pero todavía es más asequible en comparación con las tendencias históricas del mercado de la vivienda.
Nota: Durante el desplome de la vivienda, de 2009 a 2015, las propiedades en subasta (ejecuciones hipotecarias y ventas cortas) dominaron el mercado. Esas propiedades se vendieron con grandes descuentos no vistos antes en el mercado de la vivienda.
El factor número uno que afecta a la asequibilidad actual de la compra de las viviendas son las tasas hipotecarias históricamente bajas. No hay duda de que los precios van en aumento. Sin embargo, las tasas hipotecarias han caído drásticamente. La semana pasada, Freddie Mac anunció que la tasa de interés promedio para una hipoteca con tasa fija a 30 años era del 2.72 %. El año pasado, la tasa media era del 3.68 %.
Si está considerando comprar su primera casa o mudarse a la que siempre ha deseado, es importante entender como la asequibilidad juega un papel importante el costo general de su casa. Con eso en mente, comprar mientras que las tasas hipotecarias están tan bajas como ahora puede ahorrarle un poco de dinero a lo largo de la vida de su préstamo hipotecario.
En este momento, la asequibilidad de la compra de una casa todavía está en un lugar históricamente bueno. Sin embargo, tenemos que ver el aumento futuro de los precios. Como Mark Fleming, Economista Principal de First American, señaló en un blog reciente:
“Una apreciación mas rápida del precio nominal de las viviendas puede erosionar, o incluso eliminar, el impulso de la asequibilidad de las tasas hipotecarias más bajas, especialmente si el aumento de los ingresos de los hogares no mantiene el ritmo”.
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JERRY TORRES’ Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
Team@JerryTorres.Pro #TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro
Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs |
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