This Real Estate Market Is the Strongest of Our Lifetime

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This Real Estate Market Is the Strongest of Our Lifetime Simplifying The Market

When you look at the numbers today, the one thing that stands out is the strength of this housing market. We can see this is one of the most foundationally strong housing markets of our lifetime – if not the strongest housing market of our lifetime. Here are two fundamentals that prove this point. 

1. The Current Mortgage Rate on Existing Mortgages

First, let’s look at the current rate on existing mortgages. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), as of the fourth quarter of last year, over 80% of existing mortgages have a rate below 5%. That’s significant. And, to take that one step further, over 50% of mortgages have a rate below 4% (see graph below):

Now, there’s a lot of talk in the media about a potential foreclosure crisis or a rise of homeowners defaulting on their loans, but consider this. Homeowners with such good mortgage rates are going to work as hard as they can to keep that mortgage and stay in their homes. That’s because they can’t go out and buy another house, or even rent an apartment, and pay what they do today. Their current mortgage payment is more affordable. Even if they downsize, with today’s higher mortgage rates, it could cost more.

Here’s why this gives the housing market such a solid foundation today. Having so many homeowners with such low mortgage rates helps us avoid a crisis with a flood of foreclosures coming to market like there was back in 2008.

2. The Amount of Homeowner Equity

Second, Americans are sitting on tremendous equity right now. According to the Census and ATTOM, roughly two-thirds (around 68%) of homeowners have either paid off their mortgage or have at least 50% equity (see chart below):

In the industry, the term for this is equity rich. This is significant because if you think back to 2008, some people had to make the difficult decision to walk away from their homes because they owed more on the home than it was worth.

But this time, things are different because homeowners have built up so much equity over the past few years alone. And, when homeowners have that much equity, it helps us avoid another wave of distressed properties coming onto the market like we saw during the crash. It also creates an extremely strong foundation for today’s housing market.

Bottom Line

We are in one of the most foundationally strong housing markets of our lifetime because homeowners are going to fight to keep their current mortgage rate and they have a tremendous amount of equity. This is yet another reason things are fundamentally different than in 2008.

     

JERRY TORRES’
TEAM

Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS #365615


THE PERFORMANCE TEAM




Cell: (626) 269-9945
Fax: (800) 339-5004

Team@JerryTorres.Pro

https://www.JerryTorres.Pro/

#TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro


Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs


Today’s Real Estate Market: The ‘Unicorns’ Have Galloped Off

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Today’s Real Estate Market: The ‘Unicorns’ Have Galloped Off Simplifying The Market

Comparing real estate metrics from one year to another can be challenging in a normal housing market. That’s due to possible variability in the market making the comparison less meaningful or accurate. Unpredictable events can have a significant impact on the circumstances and outcomes being compared. 

Comparing this year’s numbers to the two ‘unicorn’ years we just experienced is almost worthless. By ‘unicorn,’ this is the less common definition of the word:

“Something that is greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.” 

The pandemic profoundly changed real estate over the last few years. The demand for a home of our own skyrocketed, and people needed a home office and big backyard. 

  • Waves of first-time and second-home buyers entered the market.
  • Already low mortgage rates were driven to historic lows. 
  • The forbearance plan all but eliminated foreclosures.
  • Home values reached appreciation levels never seen before.

It was a market that forever had been “greatly desired but difficult or impossible to find.” A ‘unicorn’ year.

Now, things are getting back to normal. The ‘unicorns’ have galloped off. 

Comparing today’s market to those years makes no sense. Here are three examples: 

Buyer Demand 

If you look at the headlines, you’d think there aren’t any buyers out there. We still sell over 10,000 houses a day in the United States. Of course, buyer demand is down from the two ‘unicorn’ years. But, according to ShowingTime, if we compare it to normal years (2017-2019), we can see that buyer activity is still strong (see graph below):

Home Prices

We can’t compare today’s home price increases to the last couple of years. According to Freddie Mac, 2020 and 2021 each had historic appreciation numbers. Here’s a graph also showing the more normal years (2017-2019):

We can see that we’re returning to more normal home value increases. There were several months of minimal depreciation in the second half of 2022. However, according to Fannie Mae, the market has returned to more normal appreciation in the first quarter of this year.

Foreclosures 

There have already been some startling headlines about the percentage increases in foreclosure filings. Of course, the percentages will be up. They are increases over historically low foreclosure rates. Here’s a graph with information from ATTOM, a property data provider:

There will be an increase over the numbers of the last three years now that the moratorium on foreclosures has ended. There are homeowners who lose their home to foreclosure every year, and it’s heartbreaking for those families. But, if we put the current numbers into perspective, we’ll realize that we’re actually going back to the normal filings from 2017-2019.

Bottom Line

There will be very unsettling headlines around the housing market this year. Most will come from inappropriate comparisons to the ‘unicorn’ years. A real estate professional is a great resource to help you keep everything in proper perspective.

     

JERRY TORRES’
TEAM

Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS #365615


THE PERFORMANCE TEAM




Cell: (626) 269-9945
Fax: (800) 339-5004

Team@JerryTorres.Pro

https://www.JerryTorres.Pro/

#TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro


Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs


Moving Now Can Give Your House Its Day in the Sun [INFOGRAPHIC]

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Moving Now Can Give Your House Its Day in the Sun [INFOGRAPHIC] Simplifying The Market

Some Highlights

     

JERRY TORRES’
TEAM

Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS #365615


THE PERFORMANCE TEAM




Cell: (626) 269-9945
Fax: (800) 339-5004

Team@JerryTorres.Pro

https://www.JerryTorres.Pro/

#TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro


Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs


The Benefits of Selling Now, According to Experts

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The Benefits of Selling Now, According to Experts Simplifying The Market

If you’re trying to decide if now’s the time to sell your house, here’s what you should know. The limited number of homes available right now gives you a big advantage. That’s because there are more buyers out there than there are homes for sale. And, with so few homes on the market, buyers will have fewer options, so you set yourself up to get the most eyes possible on your house.

Here’s what industry experts are saying about why selling now has its benefits:

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“Inventory levels are still at historic lows. Consequently, multiple offers are returning on a good number of properties.”

Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic:

“We have not seen the traditional uptick in new listings from existing homeowners, so undersupply of housing will continue to heighten market competition and put pressure on prices in most regions. Some markets are already heating up considerably, but price premiums that we saw last spring and summer are unlikely.”

Clare Trapasso, Executive News Editor at Realtor.com:

“Well-priced, move-in ready homes with curb appeal in desirable areas are still receiving multiple offers and selling for over the asking price in many parts of the country . . .”

Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow:

“. . . sellers who price and market their home competitively shouldn’t have a problem finding a buyer.”

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling your house, connect with a real estate advisor who can share the expert insights you need to make the best possible move today.

     

JERRY TORRES’
TEAM

Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS #365615


THE PERFORMANCE TEAM




Cell: (626) 269-9945
Fax: (800) 339-5004

Team@JerryTorres.Pro

https://www.JerryTorres.Pro/

#TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro


Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs


Oops! Home Prices Didn’t Crash After All

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Oops! Home Prices Didn’t Crash After All Simplifying The Market

During the fourth quarter of last year, many housing experts predicted home prices were going to crash this year. Here are a few of those forecasts:

Jeremy Siegel, Russell E. Palmer Professor Emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School of Business:

“I expect housing prices fall 10% to 15%, and the housing prices are accelerating on the downside.”

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics:

“Buckle in. Assuming rates remain near their current 6.5% and the economy skirts recession, then national house prices will fall almost 10% peak-to-trough. Most of those declines will happen sooner rather than later. And house prices will fall 20% if there is a typical recession.” 

Goldman Sachs: 

“Housing is already cooling in the U.S., according to July data that was reported last week. As interest rates climb steadily higher, Goldman Sachs Research’s G-10 home price model suggests home prices will decline by around 5% to 10% from the peak in the U.S. . . . Economists at Goldman Sachs Research say there are risks that housing markets could decline more than their model suggests.”

The Bad News: It Rattled Consumer Confidence

These forecasts put doubt in the minds of many consumers about the strength of the residential real estate market. Evidence of this can be seen in the December Consumer Confidence Survey from Fannie Mae. It showed a larger percentage of Americans believed home prices would fall over the next 12 months than in any other December in the history of the survey (see graph below). That caused people to hesitate about their homebuying or selling plans as we entered the new year.

The Good News: Home Prices Never Crashed

However, home prices didn’t come crashing down and seem to be already rebounding from the minimal depreciation experienced over the last several months. 

In a report just released, Goldman Sachs explained:

“The global housing market seems to be stabilizing faster than expected despite months of rising mortgage rates, according to Goldman Sachs Research. House prices are defying expectations and are rising in major economies such as the U.S.,. . . ”

Those claims from Goldman Sachs were verified by the release last week of two indexes on home prices: Case-Shiller and the FHFA. Here are the numbers each reported:

Home values seem to have turned the corner and are headed back up.

Bottom Line

The housing market is much stronger than many think. To get a true evaluation of your local market, reach out to a trusted real estate professional.

     

JERRY TORRES’
TEAM

Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS #365615


THE PERFORMANCE TEAM




Cell: (626) 269-9945
Fax: (800) 339-5004

Team@JerryTorres.Pro

https://www.JerryTorres.Pro/

#TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro


Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs


Lo que las recesiones pasadas nos dicen sobre el mercado de la vivienda

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Lo que las recesiones pasadas nos dicen sobre el mercado de la vivienda Simplifying The Market

No importa si es alguien que sigue de cerca la economía o no, es probable que haya escuchado rumores de una próxima recesión. Las condiciones económicas están determinadas por una amplia gama de factores, así que, en lugar de tratar de explicarles cada uno a profundidad, apoyémonos en los expertos y en lo que la historia nos dice para ver lo que podría estar por venir. Como dice Greg McBride, Analista Financiero Principal de Bankrate:

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¿Es hora de vender su segunda casa?

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¿Es hora de vender su segunda casa? Simplifying The Market

Durante la pandemia, las residencias secundarias se hicieron populares debido al aumento de la flexibilidad del trabajo desde casa. Esto se debe a que ser propietario de una segunda casa, especialmente en el mercado de lujo, permitió a esos propietarios pasar más tiempo en sus sitios favoritos o con diferentes características. Tenga en cuenta que una casa de lujo no solo se define por el precio. En un artículo reciente, Investopedia comparte factores adicionales que impulsan una casa a esta categoría: como la ubicación, una casa que este cerca del agua o en una ciudad deseable, u otras características, estas son cosas que hacen que la casa en sí se sienta como lujosa.

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El mercado de la vivienda actual no se parece en nada al de hace 15 años

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El mercado de la vivienda actual no se parece en nada al de hace 15 años Simplifying The MarketNo hay duda de que el mercado de la vivienda actual es muy diferente al frenético de los últimos años. En la segunda mitad del 2022, hubo un cambio drástico en bienes raíces, y causó que muchas personas hicieran comparaciones con la crisis de la vivienda del 2008. Si bien puede haber algunas similitudes, al observar ahora las variables claves en comparación con el último ciclo de la vivienda, existen diferencias significativas.

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Pronóstico de la vivienda para 2021 [infografía]

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Pronóstico de la vivienda para 2021 [infografía] | Simplifying The Market

 

Algunos aspectos destacados:

  • Los expertos prevén un año optimista para el mercado de bienes raíces en 2021.
  • Con las tasas hipotecarias proyectadas a mantenerse bajas, se espera que la demanda alta de los compradores alimente más las ventas de las viviendas y continúe aumentando los precios de las viviendas.
  • Vamos a comunicarnos hoy para determinar cómo dar el mejor paso en el nuevo año.

JERRY TORRES’
TEAM

Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS #365615


THE PERFORMANCE TEAM



Cell: (626) 269-9945
Fax: (800) 339-5004

Team@JerryTorres.Pro

https://www.JerryTorres.Pro/

#TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro


Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs


La plusvalía aumento una cantidad asombrosa de $1 billón

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En un año que fue financieramente devastador para muchos estadounidenses, algunas buenas noticias para la mayoría de los propietarios de vivienda es la drástica ganancia en la plusvalía durante los últimos doce meses. La semana pasada, CoreLogic publicó su informe ‘2020 3rd Quarter Homeowner Equity Insights’ que revela cuatro hallazgos principales:

  1. Los propietarios estadounidenses con hipotecas han visto aumentar su plusvalía en un total de 1 billón de dólares desde el tercer trimestre de 2019.
  2. El propietario promedio ganó aproximadamente $17,000 en plusvalía durante el año pasado.
  3. Este es un aumento del 10.8 % en plusvalía con respecto al año pasado.
  4. La casa promedio con una hipoteca ahora tiene $194,000 en plusvalía.

Esto ha dado a muchos propietarios la capacidad de rediseñar sus casas para satisfacer sus necesidades cambiantes. Frank Martell, Presidente y CEO de CoreLogic, explica en el informe:

“El mercado de la vivienda ha seguido siendo un pilar fuerte en un año económicamente tumultuoso. Un fuerte aumento de la demanda, impulsado por las tasas de interés históricamente bajas, sigue reforzando la plusvalía. Y con muchas personas que ahora pasan más tiempo que nunca en casa, algunos propietarios han aprovechado el fortalecimiento de su plusvalía para financiar las renovaciones”.

Esta acumulación de plusvalía ofrece más opciones a los propietarios que se han visto afectados financieramente por la pandemia. Hoy, los propietarios con una plusvalía sustancial están en una posición mucho mejor para llegar a un acuerdo con su prestamista si no pueden pagar su hipoteca. Alternativamente, también tienen el poder de vender y marcharse con una plusvalía en forma de efectivo o como pago inicial hacia una casa mas asequible. Frank Nothaft, Economista Principal de CoreLogic, aborda la cuestión en el informe:

“Durante el último año, el fuerte aumento del precio de las viviendas creó un nivel récord de plusvalía para los propietarios de vivienda… Esto proporciona una amortiguación importante para proteger a las familias si experimentan dificultades financieras y es una razón para reportar una tasa generacional baja de ejecuciones hipotecarias”.

Aquí hay un mapa que muestra la ganancia de plusvalía por estado:La plusvalía aumento una cantidad asombrosa de $1 billón | Simplifying The Market

Esta ganancia en la plusvalía es una bendición para los propietarios en estos tiempos difíciles, y parece que los próximos dos años continuarán recompensando a aquellos que son propietarios de una casa.

La semana pasada, La Asociación Nacional de Realtors (NAR por sus siglas en inglés) celebró su Cumbre de Pronósticos de bienes raíces 2020. En la cumbre, Compartieron los resultados de una encuesta reciente a 23 expertos en el mercado económico y de la vivienda. La mediana de los pronósticos entre los expertos pidió que el valor de las viviendas aumentara aún más, un 8 % en 2021 y un 5.5 % en 2022.

En conclusión,

En un año que tiene a muchos de nosotros reevaluando lo que realmente significa “hogar”, aquellos que son propietarios de casas han sido recompensados con una ganancia financiera que promedia $17,000 individualmente y un total de $1 billón a nivel nacional.

JERRY TORRES’
TEAM

Sr. Mortgage Loan Originator
NMLS #365615


THE PERFORMANCE TEAM



Cell: (626) 269-9945
Fax: (800) 339-5004

Team@JerryTorres.Pro

https://www.JerryTorres.Pro/

#TechieLoanOriginator | #JerryTorresPro


Prime & NON-Prime Home Loans | Bank Statement Loans | ITIN | HELOCs